Recruitment activity always mirrors the economy, hence why the ongoing Covid 19 global pandemic has hit the sector hard. Just like the financial crisis in 2008/9 when the wheels came off the economy.
Successive lockdowns, combined with the overall uncertainty of the virus’s progression with new mutant variations appearing, has left global and national governance struggling for answers. The term unprecedented has been used a lot in the last 12 months. There has been no play book for dealing with a pandemic of this nature.
Quite rightly, the UK government has prioritised saving lives to some degree over the economic damage lockdowns cause. However, business leaders have been left in limbo, fighting on all fronts to maintain productivity whilst making workplaces Covid secure. Some sectors like the Aerospace sector have been ravaged, whilst others have had their supply chains disrupted and order books cut.
Undoubtedly, the furlough scheme has saved a lot of jobs and businesses, easing the burden on cashflow for many firms. With the scheme due to finish in April there are stark predictions of unemployment reaching nearly 8% by the summer.
So where does that leave us in 2021? The latest forecast from the Bank of England says the economy is expected to shrink by 4.2% in the first Quarter of 2021 amid the tighter lockdown restrictions, but the vaccine rollout will help it ‘’recover rapidly’’ later in the year.
The recovery is expected to be fuelled by unleashed spending, the £170 billion consumers saved last year, equivalent to 7.7% of GDP. Describe by a HSBC analyst as ‘’a huge amount of potential economic stimulus’’.
Amid the despair of the pandemic there has been some successes. UK manufacturing responded to the healthcare crisis for PPE. Indeed, the big Pharmaceutical companies have risen to the manufacturing challenge. UK Science and engineering have overall been beacons of light in this crisis. In many ways leading the world in innovation and speed to market. There seems a post Brexit sentiment that we can once again lead the world in cutting edge science and technology.
There are still challenges ahead. The high death rates in western liberal democracies have sparked the debate about the failure of governments, against the more authoritarian regimes around the world, particularly in Asia.
Whilst at University in the early 90’s Francis Fukuyama’s book, ‘The End of History and the Last Man’ was in vogue. Essentially, he suggested the demise of the Soviet Union had left only one ideological truth. That of western liberal democracy. The current pandemic has strained this notion.
The recent upheavals in the USA, combined with huge government economic inventions around the world do make for an uncertain future. The pandemic has highlighted our inter connectedness, opened questions up about our priorities as a nation and people.
However, life will return to normal. Albeit, the ”new normal,” Demand will return.
As our recently departed stoic lockdown hero Sir, Captain Tom Moore said ‘’Tomorrow will be a good day’’.
S.Kinson